10 million jobs a tougher target for China this year

（来源：《The Straits Times》 日期：2015-3-11)

A DOUBLE whammy of a record number of graduates and a slowing economy gets in the way of China’s attempt to repeat its 2014 feat of creating more than 10 million jobs.

Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Yin Weimin told a news conference on the sidelines of China’s parliamentary session that the employment market this year faces “a more complex and arduous task” amid weaker growth as the world’s No. 2 economy restructures.

The minister’s comments come as a record 7.49 million university students are expected to graduate this year, raising concerns that the huge number could be a source of instability in the event of an economic crisis.

Experts are “cautiously optimistic” that China will meet its target. Professor Chen Shengjun at the University of International Business and Economics said a 1 per cent rise in gross domestic product (GDP) typically creates one million to 1.5 million jobs.

“On paper, 7 per cent growth can still deliver 10 million jobs,” he told The Straits Times. “But investment-led growth does not create as many jobs as growth based on innovation, so the quality of China’s GDP is important.”

Yesterday, Mr Yin also said China is likely to introduce a road map by 2017 to raise the retirement age as pressures on its pension funds mount.

But he stressed that any new policy will be rolled out at least five years after the plan is first announced and take place in phases.

Currently, men retire at 60 years old while women can do so as early as 50. The policy has remained unchanged since 1953.

Mr Yin said finances were not dire for now. The urban fund’s income stood at 2.3 trillion yuan (S$509 billion) last year, exceeding its expenditure of 2 trillion yuan for the year.

But the pension fund faces “tremendous pressure in terms of breaking even in future” as the country ages rapidly, he noted.

Some analysts have estimated that the shortfall could rise to as high as US$11 trillion (S$15.3 trillion)in the next 20 years.

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